On April 18th, the Prime Minister of the UK, Theresa May, announced her intention to dissolve parliament and call an early general election, in order to strengthen her party’s 5-seat majority in the House of Commons ahead of the upcoming Brexit talks.
Currently, polling averages for the major parties are as follows:
By inputting these values into the forecast model, and running 5,000 simulated elections, the median seat count of all generated elections is as follows:
Clearly, the Conservative Party’s gain in polls has vastly benefited them, and they look to be highly likely to win in June. However, it is too early to make definitive predictions – the campaign has yet to begin and the result could change.