World Election Forecast

Polling averages and predictions for elections worldwide

2017 UK General Election

On April 18th, the Prime Minister of the UK, Theresa May, announced her intention to dissolve parliament and call an early general election, in order to strengthen her party’s 5-seat majority in the House of Commons ahead of the upcoming Brexit talks.

Currently, polling averages for the major parties are as follows:

Polling Average

By inputting these values into the forecast model, and running 5,000 simulated elections, the median seat count of all generated elections is as follows:

UK-2017 Possible

Clearly, the Conservative Party’s gain in polls has vastly benefited them, and they look to be highly likely to win in June. However, it is too early to make definitive predictions – the campaign has yet to begin and the result could change.

Past Forecasts

What is a Polling Average?

April 24th

Polling AverageUK-2017 Possible

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: