With the last results rolling in, Emmanuel Macron appears to be the clear victor of the election, as predicted from the beginning.
Despite accurately calling the whole election, our final polling averages underestimated the degree of the Macron win by 5%. Despite having little to no difference on the final result of the election, a 5% polling gap would have made a major difference in almost any other situation (the US 2016 election had an average gap between polls and actual results by about 2-4% in swing states).
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Furthermore, it shows that despite the strength of both anti-EU candidates (Melenchon and Le Pen), the pro-EU side is decisively stronger. Additionally, it shows Le Pen’s inability to appeal to a broad audience: in time between the first and second round, Le Pen has gained only 3 million votes while Macron had gained 12 million.
The results of this second round has been decisive for the future of France and Europe. The next important French elections will be the legislative elections in early June, which will determine whether President Macron will be able to enact his policies in his policies despite not belonging to a political party. Projections will be available shortly.