The World Election Forecast’s First Round Reflections

With the last results rolling in, Emmanuel Macron appears to be the clear victor of the election, as predicted from the beginning.

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Despite accurately calling the whole election, our final polling averages underestimated the degree of the Macron win by 5%. Despite having little to no difference on the final result of the election, a 5% polling gap would have made a major difference in almost any other situation (the US 2016 election had an average gap between polls and actual results by about 2-4% in swing states).

Candidate Expected Polling Average Actual Result Difference
Macron 61% 66% +5%
Le Pen 39% 34% -5%

 

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Shift in votes between first and second rounds

 

Furthermore, it shows that despite the strength of both anti-EU candidates (Melenchon and Le Pen), the pro-EU side is decisively stronger. Additionally, it shows Le Pen’s inability to appeal to a broad audience: in time between the first and second round, Le Pen has gained only 3 million votes while Macron had gained 12 million.

The results of this second round has been decisive for the future of France and Europe. The next important French elections will be the legislative elections in early June, which will determine whether President Macron will be able to enact his policies in his policies despite not belonging to a political party. Projections will be available shortly.


Past Results

For how polling averages are conducted, click here.

Final Prediction

More Detailed Second Round Prediction.

Macron vs Le Pen

April 29th

Macron vs Le Pen4-29

April 22nd

French Presidential Election: First Round Reflections

April 18th

Polling AverageFirst RoundMacron vs Le PenMelechon vs Le PenFillon vs Le PenMacron vs FillonMelechon vs MacronChance of Winning

April 14th

First RoundChance of WinningPolling Average

April 8th

Polling AverageFirst RoundChance of Winning

French 2017 Election Polling Averages: Macron vs Le PenFrench 2017 Election Polling Averages Fillon vs Le Pen

April 4th

Polling AverageFirst RoundChance of Winning

March 29thPolling AverageFirst RoundChance of WinningMarch 22nd

Chance of WinningFirst RoundPolling Average